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Crisis of Global Sustainability (Global Institutions), by Tapio Kanninen
PDF Download Crisis of Global Sustainability (Global Institutions), by Tapio Kanninen
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This concise and informative text provides a critical history of the concept of sustainability and the various institutional measures taken to promote, implement and enforce sustainable development, proposing new organizational solutions to deal with the crisis of sustainability.
Crisis of Global Sustainability provides for the first time a compact insider description of the evolution and impact of the Club of Rome, a global think tank that produced a groundbreaking 1972 study "The Limits to Growth" which highlighted the dangers of unrestrained economic growth and possible collapse of global economy during the first decades of the 21st century. With recent research confirming the validity of these concerns, Kanninen asks whether our overarching concept of thinking on world development today should continue to be "global sustainability", which implies that we still have enough time to make adjustments in our future policies and action. Or should the main paradigm of our thinking shift to "global survivability", a concept that stresses the absolute necessity of immediate and drastic change both in institutions and policies?
Many environmentalists, green politicians and think tanks are speaking today more loudly than ever about the necessity for a major policy, institutional and paradigm change and this work is essential reading for students and scholars alike.
- Sales Rank: #3510876 in Books
- Published on: 2012-12-16
- Released on: 2012-12-18
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.50" h x .47" w x 5.43" l, .26 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 208 pages
About the Author
Tapio Kanninen is Senior Research Fellow at the Ralph Bunche Institute for International Studies at the Graduate Center of The City University of New York and a Co-Director of the Project on Sustainable Global Governance at RBIIS. A long-time UN staff member Dr. Kanninen was Chief of the Policy Planning Unit in the Department of Political Affairs (1998–2005), Head of the Secretariat of Kofi Annan’s five Summits with Regional Organizations and worked in a UNEP-funded project at the UN Statistical Office on establishing global framework for environmental statistics.
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Excellent Description of Real Warnings but Little Positive Action
By Andrew Fisher
Summary: This was a very interesting, concise, well referenced, and above all alarming book to read. It points out how our earth is a limited planet with a limited number of resources from the first birth of that idea way back in 1972 when the Club of Rome produced its groundbreaking study The Limits to Growth (LTG). Of course this conflicted with most standard economic and political beliefs at that time, so LTG was criticized by most economists, politicians, corporations, and in the mass media at that time. Most all of them still believed the earth's resources were infinite and the more products produced, food grown, people to buy it all, and profits to be made, the better off everyone would be. Due to the direct conflict between this "business as usual" and our actual limited global ecosystem - part of this conflict is already starting to appear in both climate change (many more floods, droughts, wildfires, tornadoes, and hurricanes), and in the current international financial recession (where many banks and corporations were creating value with nothing to actually back it up by very complex means) - the only way for civilization to survive is not through "sustainability" (just some more wind, solar and other renewable energy sources, plus power conservation, a smart grid, more recycling, composting, LEED certified buildings, and technology will solve all of these problems for us so we can basically continue as before), but instead a "great disruption" when finally the rich CEOs, politicians, and true decision makers see the actual crisis humankind is in and all (ideally) unite to take the proper steps which will have been previously all calculated by a worldwide organization of scientists, NGOs, and many practical people from local to national levels linked to the UN. As will be pointed out, this is no longer merely a question of sustainability, but more of survivability. We all - especially young people - should get together and calculate these survivability steps ASAP.
Chapter 5: Planetary boundaries - Doomsday prophecies or scientific projections? This was the most interesting and alarming chapter in the book. Anyone observing the daily news the last few years has seen two looming negative patterns: (a) a great increase in the number of extreme weather events such as droughts, brush and forest fires, floods, hurricanes and tornadoes, and (b) the bad stagnant economy with high unemployment, foreclosures, individual and company bankruptcies, and even several (European) nations on the verge of total economic collapse. Many scientists and others are taking a new and much less critical look at The Limits to Growth (LTG) and are amazed at how accurate its projections are over thirty years later. Most of the aggrade scenarios forecast in the original model are amazingly accurate and are now supported by current data. One of the original LTG authors wrote in 2004 that the era of rapid material industrial growth is over. Even though the gross national product (GNP) of many nations still is expanding, this expansion is due to services and other non-material activities. Food production per capita has already stopped growing, and when global oil starts its rapid decline, most GNPs will fall with it. However, even more alarming, LTG author Meadows stated that the model totally omitted any analysis or discussion of global warming or climate change.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) gave its last report in 2007 in which it predicted: globally observed increases in average temperature that will probably lead to a global average increase between 1.1° C and 6.4° C (2.0°F and 11.5° F) during the twenty first century which will lead to: (a) sea level rise between 18 - 29 centimeters (7 - 23 inches), and (b) increase in droughts, cyclones and high tides. However, several have reported that this 2007 report is already out of date and fails to include contributions to global warming CO2 and methane releases from melting arctic tundra. Since melting tundra releases methane which is many times more powerful a heat trapping gas than CO2, we are very close to a tipping point for runaway climate change! Several of these consequences were listed in a more recent 2009 MIT study. I'm listing only a few here:
Increase and the Impact
1° C (we are here now) - More extreme weather - heat waves, storms, floods
- Drying of eastern Amazon, droughts, fires, more CO2
- Destruction of Arctic ecosystem, possibly triggering tipping point
2° C (Likely increase) - Possible destruction of Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets, leading to 5 - 10 meter sea-level rise
WIPING OUT CITIES like NEW YORK, LONDON, TOKYO, and SHANGHAI
3° C (likely increase) - Northern hemisphere free of all glaciers and ice: several more meters of sea level rise
- Semi permanent El Nino conditions
4° C (likely increase) - Sea level rise of 70 meters; reduction in world population to 1 billion from current 7 billion.
Even though several other outcomes have been developed, this MIT model is the only one that interactively includes detailed treatment of possible human activity changes such as economic growth with its associated energy growth. Of the few specialists in environment, economy, and energy who are not part of the UN system or any governmental system - and so can freely point out the actual dangers (without fear of losing their research grants) - Ian Dunlop points out that current climate modeling may have badly underestimated the speed of climate change impact and that the current official target of 2° C may actually lead to average increases in global temperature of 4° C or higher! According to Dunlop, actual evidence shows these changes have already begun: the volume of arctic ice has diminished 80% in the summer and if present trends continue, it will be ice-free in the summer of 2015 and in winter by 2030 - FAR SOONER THAN WAS EXPECTED!
Paul Gilding has popularized this predicament of humankind in his 2011 book The Great Disruption. It basically gives the same message as The Limits to Growth 40 years ago - the world economic system will collapse as it hits the physical limits of earth. But unlike the LTG, he gives a much more practical, as well as mathematical, argument: (a) Humanity faces "A Very Big Problem." By ignoring earlier warnings like LTG that the earth's resources are limited and continuing both economic and population growth as if the earth's resources were infinite, governments and corporations will now have change forced upon them; (b) "The Great Disruption" - a global economic and ecological crisis - will occur within a couple of years. The early signs show already in the lingering recession following the 2008 financial crisis; (c) History tells us, however, that humans are able to respond effectively to events threatening civilization, so there will be a "Great Awakening" by which humans will save themselves from extinction.
I should also mention that I read another book, Enough Is Enough: Building a Sustainable Economy in a World of Finite Resources. It covers the same topic as Kanninen's, but it is much more positive and full of practical ways we can move forward to a sustainable planet where everyone is happier and better off, but still with DRASTIC CHANGES from our current way of doing things.
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